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Zambia’s 2026 general election has removed one of the biggest short-term uncertainties facing businesses and investors: the direction of economic policy for the next five years.
President Hakainde Hichilema has secured a second term, giving the current administration a renewed mandate to continue the economic programme it began in 2021. From a business perspective, the significance is less about party politics and more about policy continuity, investment predictability and the opportunity to move from economic stabilisation towards growth.
The first term was heavily focused on debt restructuring, macroeconomic reform and restoring Zambia’s relationship with international lenders. The second term is likely to be judged differently.
Investors will now want expansion.
They will want electricity.
They will want increased mining production.
They will want infrastructure.
They will want predictable regulation.
And most importantly, they will want Zambia’s improved macroeconomic position converted into commercially viable growth.
Key Takeaways
- The 2026 election provides greater policy continuity for investors. Hakainde Hichilema’s re-election reduces the likelihood of an immediate reversal in Zambia’s current approach to debt management, mining, private investment and economic reform.
- Zambia’s next phase is about moving from stabilisation to expansion. The government enters its second term after substantial progress on debt restructuring, inflation and international reserves.
- Energy, mining, agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure are likely to dominate the investment agenda through 2031.
- The government’s stated economic targets are extremely ambitious, including more than 10,000 MW of electricity generation and three million tonnes of annual copper production.
- The biggest opportunities will not necessarily be in owning mines, farms or power stations. Suppliers, manufacturers, technology companies, logistics providers and professional service firms can participate in the ecosystems around them.
- Execution is now the central investment question. The election has largely settled political direction. Investors must now watch which promises become legislation, budgets, infrastructure projects and actual procurement.
What does the election result change for investors?
The election result gives investors something that is often undervalued: visibility.
Businesses making long-term investments do not need government to guarantee profits. They need to understand the direction in which policy is moving.
A manufacturer considering a ZMW 100 million factory needs confidence that industrial policy will not abruptly change.
A mining company investing over ten or twenty years needs clarity around mining policy.
A renewable energy developer needs confidence that private generation will remain part of Zambia’s power strategy.
A regional company entering Zambia needs some predictability around taxation, foreign investment, exchange controls and regulation.
Hichilema’s victory provides continuity on many of these issues.
Reuters described the election outcome specifically in terms of investors receiving continuity, while noting that the pressure on the administration now shifts towards delivering stronger economic growth.
That distinction matters.
The first Hichilema administration inherited a Zambia dealing with the consequences of its 2020 sovereign default. Much of the economic story since 2021 has therefore involved restructuring debt and rebuilding credibility.
The second administration starts from a different position.
The question is no longer simply:
Can Zambia stabilise?
It is:
Can Zambia grow at the scale required to create businesses, investment returns, jobs and higher household incomes?
For investors, that is a considerably more interesting question.
Is Zambia entering the second term from a stronger economic position?
Yes. Zambia enters the post-election period with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals than it had several years ago, although significant risks remain.
The International Monetary Fund said in May 2026 that Zambia had made substantial progress in restoring macroeconomic stability. Gross international reserves had risen to approximately USD 6.4 billion, equivalent to around 4.4 months of prospective imports, while inflation had fallen to 6.8% in April and returned to the Bank of Zambia’s target range.
This matters commercially.
Lower inflation improves pricing visibility.
Greater exchange-rate stability helps import-dependent businesses plan.
Stronger reserves reduce external vulnerability.
Debt restructuring can ultimately give government more room to focus on infrastructure and economic development rather than crisis management.
The Zambia Development Agency also reported USD 1.69 billion in actualised investment during the first quarter of 2026, with 9,576 jobs associated with those investments.
None of this means Zambia has arrived.
Electricity remains a significant constraint. Household purchasing power remains an issue. Government finances still require discipline. Zambia is also seeking another International Monetary Fund-supported programme following completion of the previous arrangement.
But investors are no longer evaluating Zambia purely as a turnaround story.
It is increasingly becoming a growth execution story.
Where will the biggest investment opportunities emerge?
The clearest post-election opportunities are likely to emerge where the government’s new five-year mandate overlaps with Zambia’s existing economic strengths.
The governing party’s 2026-2031 programme targets a significant increase in productive capacity. Its stated goals include more than 10,000 MW of electricity generation, three million tonnes of copper production, 10 million tonnes of maize, three million tonnes of soya, one million tonnes of wheat, five million tourist arrivals and USD 1 billion in annual beef exports.
Those numbers should not be treated as guaranteed forecasts.
They should be read as signals of where government attention, facilitation, infrastructure and investment promotion are likely to concentrate.
| Growth area | Government direction | Investor opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | Expand generation beyond 10,000 MW | Solar, wind, storage, transmission, EPC |
| Copper | Increase output towards 3 million tonnes | Mining services, equipment, logistics, processing |
| Agriculture | Major maize, wheat, soya and beef expansion | Irrigation, storage, processing, inputs |
| Manufacturing | Build a stronger industrial economy | Import substitution, fabrication, processing |
| Infrastructure | Expand economic connectivity | Roads, rail, logistics, PPPs |
| Tourism | Target 5 million visitors | Hotels, hospitality, transport, experiences |
| Digital economy | Digitise public and business services | Software, cybersecurity, payments, ICT |
| Skills and jobs | Expand vocational and industry training | Training, recruitment, HR technology |
The important investment insight is this:
Do not only invest in the headline sector. Invest in what the headline sector will need.
That is where many of Zambia’s most accessible opportunities sit.
If your company is looking at Zambia following the 2026 election, M&J Consultants can conduct an investment and market-entry review before capital is committed. We assess your business model against tax, regulation, company structure and sector requirements, giving management a clear view of the opportunity and exposure before making the investment decision.
Why could mining and energy drive the next investment cycle?
Mining and energy are likely to be at the centre of Zambia’s next growth cycle because Zambia cannot achieve its industrial ambitions without expanding both.
Copper remains fundamental to the country’s export economy.
The government has maintained an ambition to increase annual copper production towards three million metric tonnes, while global demand for copper continues to strengthen the strategic importance of Zambia’s mineral resources. Investors interviewed ahead of the election were particularly focused on whether announced mining investment would translate into actual production.
The obvious opportunity is mining.
The less obvious opportunity is everything that mining consumes.
A larger Zambian mining industry requires:
- engineering services;
- equipment;
- industrial chemicals;
- transport;
- warehousing;
- protective clothing;
- fuel;
- accommodation;
- maintenance;
- recruitment;
- training;
- financial services;
- accounting;
- ERP systems;
- cybersecurity; and
- specialist professional services.
This becomes even more important if Zambia continues strengthening local procurement and local content requirements.
Investors should therefore ask a very practical question:
What does Zambia’s mining industry currently import that we can produce or supply competitively inside Zambia?
Energy presents an equally significant opportunity.
Zambia’s dependence on hydropower has exposed businesses to severe electricity shortages during drought conditions. The government’s target of increasing generation from roughly 3,400 MW to more than 10,000 MW therefore addresses a genuine economic constraint rather than an abstract development target.
Opportunities exist in utility-scale solar, commercial solar, battery storage, wind generation, mini-grids, transmission, engineering and energy equipment.
If Zambia solves electricity, it unlocks much more than the power sector.
It unlocks mining.
It unlocks manufacturing.
It unlocks irrigation.
It unlocks tourism.
And it makes Zambia more attractive to industrial investors.
Could agriculture and manufacturing be the underrated opportunities?
Agriculture and manufacturing could generate some of the most significant private-sector opportunities of the post-election period because Zambia’s strategy increasingly connects production with value addition.
The stated agricultural targets are substantial: 10 million tonnes of maize, three million tonnes of soya, one million tonnes of wheat, significant irrigation expansion and USD 1 billion in annual beef exports.
But farming itself is only one part of the opportunity.
Producing more maize creates demand for grain storage.
More soya creates opportunities in cooking oil and animal feed.
More wheat creates milling opportunities.
More beef production requires feedlots, abattoirs, cold-chain logistics, packaging and export infrastructure.
More irrigated land requires pumps, pipes, solar systems, engineering and agricultural technology.
That is how agriculture becomes industrial.
Manufacturing then becomes the next step.
Zambia imports products that could increasingly be produced locally using Zambian agricultural or mineral inputs.
For investors, this creates two particularly interesting strategies:
Import substitution: identify products currently imported into Zambia that can economically be manufactured locally.
Regional export production: manufacture in Zambia while serving markets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Botswana, Tanzania and other regional markets.
Zambia’s geographic location gives it an important strategic advantage for businesses thinking beyond its domestic market.
The post-election question is therefore not simply whether agriculture will grow.
It is whether investors can position themselves between production and the final customer, where much of the value is created.
What opportunities could emerge from the 24-hour economy and infrastructure agenda?
Infrastructure, logistics and urban commercial activity could become a major second-order opportunity if the government implements its plans for connected economic hubs and greater provincial specialisation.
The 2026-2031 programme proposes developing key urban centres and border areas into 24-hour economic hubs, strengthening decentralisation and creating specialised economic identities for different provinces. It also proposes greater digitisation of land registration, business registration, national identity systems and tax administration.
These policies could create opportunities far beyond government contracts.
A more active border economy requires:
warehouses,
truck stops,
fuel facilities,
security,
restaurants,
accommodation,
payments,
customs support,
freight forwarding,
commercial property,
and logistics technology.
Industrial growth requires new warehouses and factories.
Tourism requires accommodation and transport.
Mining growth requires roads, rail and logistics corridors.
Agricultural expansion requires storage and routes to market.
The Zambia Development Agency is already promoting bankable projects across energy, transport, infrastructure and sustainable development to international investors.
For investors, infrastructure should therefore not be seen only as something government builds.
It is also something businesses can finance, operate, supply and build around.
What should investors still be cautious about?
A positive post-election investment case does not mean Zambia is risk-free. Serious investors should distinguish between an improving environment and a perfect one.
The first risk is execution.
Election manifestos contain targets. Businesses operate on legislation, budgets, licences, contracts and cash flows.
The government’s ambition to more than double electricity generation or triple copper production will only become commercially meaningful as actual projects reach financial close and implementation.
The second risk is electricity security.
Past drought conditions exposed the vulnerability created by Zambia’s dependence on hydropower. Another major climate shock could still affect production across the economy. Reuters identified power reliability as one of the central concerns investors were watching around the election.
The third risk is fiscal discipline.
Investors should watch Zambia’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund, public expenditure and the government’s ability to finance development without recreating unsustainable debt pressure. Zambia is seeking a new IMF-supported programme before the end of 2026.
The fourth is consumer economics.
Macroeconomic indicators can improve while households remain financially stretched. Businesses selling directly to consumers must therefore assess purchasing power separately from headline GDP growth.
And finally, investors should continue monitoring institutional and governance developments.
Political continuity is valuable.
Institutional strength is equally valuable.
What does this mean for an investor considering Zambia today?
Consider a regional company with ZMW 40 million available for expansion.
The election result alone is not a reason to invest.
The question is how the company’s capabilities align with the direction Zambia is now taking.
A logistics company could study mining and agricultural corridors.
An engineering company could target mining and energy projects.
A manufacturer could assess mining consumables currently imported into Zambia.
An agricultural investor could investigate irrigation, processing or storage rather than simply acquiring farmland.
A technology company could target businesses that must digitise as they scale.
A property investor could examine industrial warehousing rather than only traditional office property.
That is how an investor should use a post-election analysis.
Not:
“Who won the election?”
But:
“What will the election result cause government and private capital to do over the next five years, and where can our business profitably participate?”
That is the commercial question.
Conclusion
Zambia’s 2026 election has provided the country with economic policy continuity at an important moment.
The first Hichilema administration largely had to repair.
The second now has to build.
The stated ambition is significant: more electricity, more copper, larger agricultural production, deeper industrialisation, improved infrastructure and a larger private sector.
Investors should not interpret those ambitions as guarantees.
They should interpret them as clues.
The strongest opportunities are likely to sit where Zambia’s economic constraints meet its policy priorities: power, mining supply chains, agricultural value addition, manufacturing, logistics, infrastructure and technology.
The election is finished.
For businesses, the more important period begins now.
The next five years will determine whether Zambia can convert economic stability into productive capacity and productive capacity into sustainable growth.
Investors that understand that transition early may find themselves entering the market before the most valuable opportunities become obvious.
If Zambia is now on your investment radar, book a Zambia investment and strategy review with M&J Consultants. We assess the opportunity, regulatory structure, taxation, compliance requirements and market-entry model so you can make the decision with numbers rather than assumptions.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Zambia a good investment destination after the 2026 election?
The election has improved policy visibility by returning the existing administration for another term. Zambia also enters the period with improved inflation, reserves and progress on debt restructuring. Investors should still assess sector-specific risks, electricity reliability, regulation and project economics before committing capital.
Which sectors offer the best investment opportunities in Zambia after the election?
Energy, mining services, agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, logistics, tourism and technology are among the strongest opportunities. Government targets for electricity, copper and agricultural production suggest substantial additional demand across the supply chains supporting these industries.
What does Hakainde Hichilema’s re-election mean for investors?
Hichilema’s re-election primarily provides continuity in economic policy. Investors can expect the current direction on mining expansion, debt management, investment attraction and private-sector participation to continue, although the second term will increasingly be judged on growth and implementation rather than stabilisation alone.
What is Zambia targeting for copper production?
The government has maintained a target of increasing annual copper production towards three million metric tonnes. Achieving this would create opportunities not only for mine operators but also for equipment suppliers, engineering companies, logistics providers, manufacturers and other mining-service businesses.
What is Zambia’s electricity target?
The governing programme targets increasing Zambia’s electricity generation capacity from approximately 3,400 MW to more than 10,000 MW. This creates potential investment opportunities in generation, renewable energy, battery storage, transmission and industrial energy solutions.
What is the biggest risk for investors after the election?
Execution is arguably the biggest risk. Investors should distinguish political commitments from enacted policy and actual projects. Electricity constraints, fiscal discipline, climate exposure and household purchasing power also remain important risks when evaluating Zambia.